Startinga Position in CVC today starting with 200 shares

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Think this one is about to move on news, after failed attempt to bring this private at 36.00 a share. shares down over 40% and seeing some opportunities here for another shot to get company private.. here is an analyst note that also is hitting the wires

Cablevision: Adding subs despite VZ onslaught, while others lose subs; could try to go private again - Pali Research (21.70 )

Pali notes while CVC management guidance is for flat 2007 basic subscribers (implying an increase in Q4 subs), they believe investors are expecting a meaningful decline in Q4 basic subs. They believe CVC actually ADDED basic subs in Q4 2007, albeit the co may have fallen just shy of its goal of flat basic subs for the year -- they are now expecting 500 net sub adds vs. their prior estimate of a 7K loss. They believe CVC's positive Q4 basic sub additions are all the more impressive given the declines they expect at both CMCSA and TWX. They believe the Dolans may be reticent to aggressively repurchase CVC shares in the open market, in hopes of making yet another attempt to privatize CVC (using other people's money, ie. banks). With CVC down 40% in three months, they believe a Dolan offer would be quite difficult for shareholders to reject, even if the offer was well below the last "go private" attempt.